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13
2023
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04
LCD panel prices continue to rebound in April and companies still need to control capacity utilization
On March 27, Sigmantell released the Weather vane display of LCD panel prices in April. In April this year, the prices of LCD panels for monitors and laptops were almost flat on a month on month basis. In April, the prices of LCD TV panels continued to rise across the board. The trend of price rebound in the panel industry is further clarified. Li Yaqin, General Manager of Qunzhi Consulting, reminded reporters from First Financial that panel companies still need to be cautious in controlling production capacity utilization in 2023.
In terms of LCD TV panels, the first quarter is approaching its end. Driven by factors such as panel manufacturers' production control strategies and strategic stocking by Chinese manufacturers, the global LCD TV panel market supply and demand relationship is gradually tightening, and LCD TV panel prices are starting to rise comprehensively. The short-term price increase is higher than expected due to the coordinated goal of turning losses on the supply side and the aggressive price increase strategy.
Qunzhi Consulting predicts that the average price of 32 inch panels will maintain an upward trend of 1-2 US dollars from March to April; The average price of 43 inch panels from March to April will maintain a 2-3 dollar increase; The average price of 50 inch panels will increase by $4-5 per month from March to April; The average price of 55 inch panels from March to April will maintain a significant increase of $5-6; 65 and 75 inch panels, with an average price increase of over $10 in March, will maintain a significant increase of nearly $10 in April.
In terms of monitor panels, under the continuous production control of panel factories, the current supply and demand of display panels have returned to health, and mainstream panel prices have stabilized in March. 21.5-inch panels, prices remained stable in March and are expected to rise slightly in April; 23.8-inch panels, prices remain stable from March to April; The price of 27 inch panels remained stable from March to April.
In terms of notebook panels, due to the sluggish terminal performance and lower than expected domestic market performance, top brands continue to implement inventory management and panel procurement is relatively conservative. Currently, inventory in the low-end market has moved towards health, but inventory in the mid to high end product channels remains high. Against this backdrop, the prices of low-end notebook panels remain stable from March to April, while the prices of mid to high-end notebook panels will continue to decline.
Li Yaqin believes that from the perspective of production capacity supply, the global production capacity of display panels will increase significantly this year and next year. This year, if panel manufacturers do not control the production rate, panel production capacity will increase by 9%, and next year this proportion will reach around 12%. In the context of weak demand growth, there is still a risk of oversupply of LCD and OLED panels in the next two years, and panel manufacturers must carefully control the production rate.
In the context of weak growth in overall panel demand, car and laptop computers are positive variables. According to research conducted by Qunzhi Consulting, the average number of monitors used for a single new energy vehicle has exceeded 2, and it is expected that the market size of in car displays will double in 2026 compared to 2015. Li Yaqin said that the total demand for mainstream display application markets, including televisions, monitors, tablets, etc., is currently quite stable, and the total scale is still lower than in 2015. This means that the driving force and development opportunities for the next few years will come from structural changes and technological changes.
High refresh rate will be the development trend of display technology. In the hybrid office scenario, the demand for PC performance is getting higher and higher, and the demand for high Refresh rate panels is also growing. Especially with the reduction of cost, the cost gap between high Refresh rate panels and ordinary panels is getting smaller and smaller.
Laptops will show a strong growth trend in the next few years, and the next trend in display technology is OLED. In the laptop market, as more and more panel manufacturers join and SDC (Samsung Display) new lines are expected to be mass-produced in 2025, OLED screens are accelerating their penetration. In addition to SDC, multiple Chinese panel manufacturers producing rigid and flexible OLED screens will also join the OLED laptop screen market. Li Yaqin said that this year and next year, OLED screens will steadily grow in laptop applications. It is expected that Apple will use OLED screens in its laptop products around 2026, and will launch new laptop products equipped with OLED displays, which will help increase the demand for OLED laptop screens. At present, the main participants are terminal brands such as Samsung, HP, and Lenovo, which are actively promoting the application of OLED screens on laptops.
Previously, Li Dongsheng, the founder and chairman of TCL, stated in an interview with First Financial reporters at the end of February this year that the recent upward trend in LCD panel prices will continue. He said at the time that the prices of panels have rebounded in the past few months. From the perspective of the development law of panel enterprises, they are inherently highly cyclical. This round of panel prices stabilizing and rebounding will return to the healthy operation of the industry.
In January this year, BOE Technology released its 2022 performance forecast, which revealed that BOE Technology's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 is expected to decrease by 70% -71% year-on-year to 7.5 billion -7.7 billion yuan; That month, TCL Technology also released a performance forecast for 2022, which revealed that revenue in 2022 will increase by 2% -4% year-on-year to 167-169.6 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to the parent company will decrease by 96% -97% year-on-year to 255-358 million yuan; According to the 2022 annual report released by Shenzhen Tianma in March this year, the revenue in 2022 decreased by 6.86% year-on-year to 31.447 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 113 million yuan, turning losses into profits.